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Don't Get Stranded At Mount Stupid: Assume You’re Below Average & Aim For Zero

Updated: Dec 20, 2022



Derek Sivers is a guy I deeply respect, because of his communication chops, obviously.

But also because of his larger-than-life swagger that makes him remarkable.

He said something that caught my attention and has stayed with me for going on ten years now.

And I’m not talking about his 2010 TED Talk where he explains how movements really get started, using footage of a half-naked dancing man at a music festival to illustrate his point.

I’ve got something different here that’s going to blow your mind.

This blew me away, anyway.

But first, let’s time travel to 1999, when David Dunning and Justin Kruger published a report "Unskilled and Unaware of It" that would soon become famous.

They found that in many situations, those who can’t don’t know they can’t.

According to what’s now known as the Dunning-Kruger effect, it’s when we lack competence that we’re most likely to be brimming with overconfidence.


"The first rule of the Dunning-Kruger club is that you don't know you are a member of the Dunning-Kruger club. People miss that.” - David Dunning

In a series of studies, people rated whether they knew more or less than most people about a range of topics and then took a quiz to test their actual knowledge.

The more superior participants thought their knowledge was, the more they overestimated themselves and the less interested they were in learning and updating.

Most people think they’re better than others and pretend to know things they don’t.

Derek does the opposite.

And so can you.

Let’s crush it.

Derek is typing now:


Ninety-six percent of cancer patients claim to be in better health than the average cancer patient.

Ninety-four percent of professors say they are better-than-average teachers.

Ninety percent of students think they are more intelligent than the average student.

Ninety-three percent of drivers say they are safer-than-average drivers.

When I learned this, it shook my soul.

At first, like almost everybody, I thought, “Yes, but I really am above average!”

So I decided to gamble on the opposite.

Now I just assume I’m below average.

It serves me well.

I listen more.

I ask a lot of questions, I assume most people are smarter than me.

To assume you’re below average is to admit you’re still learning.

You focus on what you need to improve, not your past accomplishments.


It’s a good perspective.

Being average or below average keeps you on your toes.

It makes you work harder, it allows you to keep an open mind.

It gives you that edge and the hunger to learn from others.

If you think you are above average, you don’t need to try harder anymore.

You’ve reached your destination.

What if instead, you showed some tactical patience and thought you were below average?

Would you ask more questions?

Would you be more open-minded?

Would you seek better solutions?

Would you try harder?

The virtue of intellectual humility - the ability to recognize that the things you believe in might be wrong - is an essential trait, but a rare one.

Derek is not the only one who knows this.

Let’s segue to space exploration, shall we?

Astronauts are the best of the best. (Check the riff here)

But, when test pilots become astronauts, it’s like a caterpillar becoming a butterfly.

Some think they’ve arrived, but they’ve only just begun to fly.

Don’t be a know it all, says Chris Hadfield.

Chris an amazing human being.

He commanded the International Space Station.

He used YouTube to teach us about life in orbit.

He used Twitter to give us a new perspective on our planet and gained more than 790,000 followers thanks to his regular posts.

And yes, it was him who did that viral cover of Bowie’s Space Oddity, the only song that is truly “out of this world”

Then he came home and wrote a book called An Astronaut’s Guide to Life on Earth. I read that book. Have you ever read something that is so counter-intuitive that you have to go back and read it again? That happened to me while reading Chapter 9 titled ‘Aim to be a zero’. Zero is not usually a number we equate with success. Why would you aim to be zero? Chris said that during his training he would move around with his family a lot. Each time he moved, he would have to learn how to work with a new team. He may have been an all-star at his last post, but instead of barging in and trying to take charge, he aimed to be a zero.

"Over the years, I’ve realized that in any new situation, whether it involves an elevator or a rocket ship, you will almost certainly be viewed in one of three ways. As a minus one: actively harmful, someone who creates problems. Or as a zero: your impact is neutral and doesn’t tip the balance one way or the other. Or you’ll be seen as a plus one: someone who actively adds value. Everyone wants to be a plus one, of course. But proclaiming your plus-oneness at the outset almost guarantees you’ll be perceived as a minus one, regardless of the skills you bring to the table or how you actually perform. Aim to be a zero, not a hero.” - Chris Hadfield

What’s Chris talking about here? In any given situation, you’re either a ‘plus-one’, a ‘zero’ or a ‘minus-one'. If you’re a plus-one, you’re actively adding value. If you’re a zero, you’re generally competent and don’t get in the way. Being a minus-one sucks, because you’re a liability and actively cause problems. Notice that if you’re a plus-one and you walk into a situation trying to prove how great you are, you can go from a plus one to a minus one. (Remember that new manager who joined your team and rushed straight into making sweeping changes to demonstrate the fresh thinking she's bringing into the organization?) What's the best thing to do in a new situation? Aim for zero. That's cool advice. Read that again. Slowly. Aim for zero. Don’t get stranded at the summit of Mount Stupid. To make it over to the other side, you must come to realize that you must become a student again. This means humbly showing up, not trying to be in the spotlight, observing, asking questions, offering advice and learning the ropes. If you know what you’re doing, you'll blend in nicely and you won’t need to tell people you’re a plus one. They’ll know it. In time you will earn their respect and can move from zero to plus contributor and someone that others will want to follow.

Anyway, that’s my rant. I hope it resonates. Until next time.



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